A Bayesian method for detecting stellar flares

We present a Bayesian-odds-ratio-based algorithm for detecting stellar flares in light curve data. We assume flares are described by a model in which there is a rapid rise with a half-Gaussian profile, followed by an exponential decay. Our signal model also contains a polynomial background model. This is required to fit underlying light curve variations that are expected in the data, which could otherwise partially mimic a flare. We characterise the false alarm probability and efficiency of this method and compare it with a simpler thresholding method based on that used in Walkowicz et al (2011). We find our method has a significant increase in detection efficiency for low signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) flares. For a conservative false alarm probability our method can detect 95% of flares with S/N less than ~20, as compared to S/N of ~25 for the simpler method. As an example we have applied our method to a selection of stars in Kepler Quarter 1 data. The method finds 687 flaring stars with a total of 1873 flares after vetos have been applied. For these flares we have characterised their durations and and signal-to-noise ratios.Comment: Accepted for MNRAS. The code used for the analysis can be found at https://github.com/BayesFlare/bayesflare/releases/tag/v1.0.

A more representative chamber: representation and the House of Lords

Since 1997 there has been substantive reform of the House of Lords in an effort to make the chamber ‘more democratic and more representative’. Whilst the Labour government failed to press ahead with any of the proposed plans for further reform following the removal of the bulk of the hereditary peers in 1999, it remained committed to the notion that such reform must make the second chamber ‘more representative’. The coalition government's programme advocates a long-term aspiration for a House wholly or mainly elected on the basis of proportional representation, and a short-term approach based on additional appointments to ensure a balance of the parties. What is clear in all of these proposals for reform is a desire for the House of Lords to become more representative than it is at present. However, what is less clear is what is meant by ‘representative’ – who the House of Lords is supposed to represent, and what form representation will take. Moreover, in proposing to make the chamber more representative, either through appointment or election, little attention has been paid to how the current House of Lords provides representation. This article examines these questions in the context of Pitkin's classic conceptions of representation and peers' attitudes towards their own representative rol

Advanced technologies for future ground-based, laser-interferometric gravitational wave detectors

We present a review of modern optical techniques being used and developed for the field of gravitational wave detection. We describe the current state-of-the-art of gravitational waves detector technologies with regard to optical layouts, suspensions and test masses. We discuss the dominant sources and noise in each of these subsystems and the developments that will help mitigate them for future generations of detectors. We very briefly summarise some of the novel astrophysics that will be possible with these upgraded detectors

Inferring Core-Collapse Supernova Physics with Gravitational Waves

Stellar collapse and the subsequent development of a core-collapse supernova explosion emit bursts of gravitational waves (GWs) that might be detected by the advanced generation of laser interferometer gravitational-wave observatories such as Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo, and LCGT. GW bursts from core-collapse supernovae encode information on the intricate multi-dimensional dynamics at work at the core of a dying massive star and may provide direct evidence for the yet uncertain mechanism driving supernovae in massive stars. Recent multi-dimensional simulations of core-collapse supernovae exploding via the neutrino, magnetorotational, and acoustic explosion mechanisms have predicted GW signals which have distinct structure in both the time and frequency domains. Motivated by this, we describe a promising method for determining the most likely explosion mechanism underlying a hypothetical GW signal, based on Principal Component Analysis and Bayesian model selection. Using simulated Advanced LIGO noise and assuming a single detector and linear waveform polarization for simplicity, we demonstrate that our method can distinguish magnetorotational explosions throughout the Milky Way (D <~ 10kpc) and explosions driven by the neutrino and acoustic mechanisms to D <~ 2kpc. Furthermore, we show that we can differentiate between models for rotating accretion-induced collapse of massive white dwarfs and models of rotating iron core collapse with high reliability out to several kpc.Comment: 22 pages, 9 figure

Representation in Westminster in the 1990s : The ghost of Edmund Burke

Why are 'trustee' notions of representation still invoked in the UK House of Commons in the 1990s? In answering this question this article analyses the premises of Burkean theory and the arguments that these premises are of little relevance in the late twentieth century. Despite these dismissals of trusteeship, Burkean ideas are still articulated in the Commons some 200 years after they were first voiced. The idea of trusteeship can prove extremely useful to justify the actions of representatives when those actions conflict with constituency 'opinion', party policy or the wishes of interest groups. Examples of the occasions when Burkean notions have been invoked in the 1990s are provided

'Word from the street' : when non-electoral representative claims meet electoral representation in the United Kingdom

Taking the specific case of street protests in the UK – the ‘word from the street’– this article examines recent (re)conceptualizations of political representation, most particularly Saward’s notion of ‘representative claim’. The specific example of nonelectoral claims articulated by protestors and demonstrators in the UK is used to illustrate: the processes of making, constituting, evaluating and accepting claims for and by constituencies and audiences; and the continuing distinctiveness of claims based upon electoral representation. Two basic questions structure the analysis: first, why would the political representative claims of elected representatives trump the nonelectoral claims of mass demonstrators and, second, in what ways does the ‘perceived legitimacy’ of the former differ from the latter

Gravitational wave detection using pulsars: status of the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array project

The first direct detection of gravitational waves may be made through observations of pulsars. The principal aim of pulsar timing array projects being carried out worldwide is to detect ultra-low frequency gravitational waves (f ~ 10^-9 to 10^-8 Hz). Such waves are expected to be caused by coalescing supermassive binary black holes in the cores of merged galaxies. It is also possible that a detectable signal could have been produced in the inflationary era or by cosmic strings. In this paper we review the current status of the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array project (the only such project in the Southern hemisphere) and compare the pulsar timing technique with other forms of gravitational-wave detection such as ground- and space-based interferometer systems.Comment: Accepted for publication in PAS

The Sensitivity of the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array to Individual Sources of Gravitational Waves

We present the sensitivity of the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array to gravitational waves emitted by individual super-massive black-hole binary systems in the early phases of coalescing at the cores of merged galaxies. Our analysis includes a detailed study of the effects of fitting a pulsar timing model to non-white timing residuals. Pulsar timing is sensitive at nanoHertz frequencies and hence complementary to LIGO and LISA. We place a sky-averaged constraint on the merger rate of nearby ($z < 0.6$) black-hole binaries in the early phases of coalescence with a chirp mass of 10^{10}\,\rmn{M}_\odot of less than one merger every seven years. The prospects for future gravitational-wave astronomy of this type with the proposed Square Kilometre Array telescope are discussed.Comment: fixed error in equation (4). [13 pages, 6 figures, 1 table, published in MNRAS

Report on the first round of the Mock LISA Data Challenges

The Mock LISA Data Challenges (MLDCs) have the dual purpose of fostering the development of LISA data analysis tools and capabilities, and demonstrating the technical readiness already achieved by the gravitational-wave community in distilling a rich science payoff from the LISA data output. The first round of MLDCs has just been completed: nine data sets containing simulated gravitational wave signals produced either by galactic binaries or massive black hole binaries embedded in simulated LISA instrumental noise were released in June 2006 with deadline for submission of results at the beginning of December 2006. Ten groups have participated in this first round of challenges. Here we describe the challenges, summarise the results, and provide a first critical assessment of the entries.Comment: Proceedings report from GWDAW 11. Added author, added reference, clarified some text, removed typos. Results unchanged; Removed author, minor edits, reflects submitted versio